China’s AI Ambitions: Racing Ahead of the U.S. While Grappling with Control
China’s pursuit of artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy is not just a technological race—it’s a geopolitical and ideological balancing act. As the country’s tech giants roll out advanced AI models, experts warn that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI capable of surpassing human intelligence—could challenge the very control the ruling Communist Party holds over the world’s second-largest economy.
Prominent AI scientist Max Tegmark has raised alarms about the rapid pace of AGI development, calling it a “suicide race” rather than a competition. Speaking to CNBC, Tegmark emphasized that AGI is closer than many think, and the global narrative of a U.S.-China rivalry to build the smartest AI is fraught with risks.
What is AGI?
Artificial general intelligence, or AGI, refers to AI systems that can outperform humans in virtually every intellectual task. While tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT have gained massive popularity for their conversational capabilities, AGI represents a leap toward machines with human-level intelligence—or beyond.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has suggested that AGI could be achieved as early as 2025. However, opinions vary widely. While some tech leaders share Altman’s optimism, others believe true AGI is still decades away. For instance, Baidu’s CEO has publicly stated that AGI is likely more than 10 years away (source).
The Geopolitical AI Race
The race to dominate AI is not just a corporate competition; it’s a geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China. Tegmark, however, argues that framing this as a race to be “first” is misleading. “I think of this geopolitical battle to build AGI first as a ‘hopium war,’” Tegmark said. “It’s fueled by delusional hope that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark, who serves as president of the Future of Life Institute, has been vocal about the dangers of unchecked AI development. His organization penned an open letter last year urging AI labs to pause the development of advanced AI systems. The letter was signed by notable figures, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark’s primary concern is that while AGI development is accelerating, there are few safeguards in place to control it if it surpasses human intelligence.
“We are much closer to building AGI than figuring out how to control it,” Tegmark warned. “And that means that the AGI race is not an arms race; it’s a suicide race.”
China’s Unique Position
According to Tegmark, China has little incentive to develop AGI. He recounted a story where Elon Musk reportedly told Chinese government officials in early 2023 that if AGI is created, it would not be controlled by the Communist Party but by the superintelligence itself. This revelation reportedly elicited a strong reaction from Chinese officials, prompting the country to introduce its first AI regulations within a month (source).
“The U.S. doesn’t need to convince China to not build AGI,” Tegmark said. “Even if the U.S. didn’t exist, the Chinese government would have an incentive to not build it because they want to be in control. The last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s AI Strategy
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. Major firms like Alibaba, Huawei, and Tencent are actively developing their own AI models, and these technologies are advancing rapidly. China has also been a global leader in regulating AI, introducing rules to govern generative AI services like ChatGPT. However, the country’s internet remains heavily censored, and chatbots in China are programmed to avoid politically sensitive topics.
China’s approach to AI reflects a dual strategy: fostering innovation while maintaining strict control. Analysts believe this balancing act will extend to AGI. “China will attempt to dominate AGI while creating a techno-regulatory apparatus that limits what AGI is permitted to do domestically,” said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consultancy Trivium China.
AI as a Geopolitical Tool
Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business, explained that China views AI through two lenses: geopolitical power and domestic growth. “With AI, China hopes to shift the balance of power around the globe, like creating a new export model. And, in parallel, China wants to power its economy in new ways, from government efficiency to business applications,” Prakash told CNBC.
The U.S., meanwhile, has sought to restrict China’s access to critical technologies, particularly semiconductors like those designed by Nvidia, which are essential for training advanced AI models. In response, China has been working to build its own chip industry.
The Risks of AGI
Experts have long warned about the potential dangers of AGI. One major concern is that without proper safeguards, AGI could become self-improving, designing new systems independently and potentially spiraling out of human control. Tegmark believes that both the U.S. and China will eventually recognize these risks and implement national safety standards to protect their own interests.
“My optimistic path forward is the U.S. and China unilaterally impose national safety standards to prevent their own companies from doing harm and building uncontrollable AGI,” Tegmark said. “After that happens, there’s this really interesting stage where the U.S. and China will be like, wait, how can we guarantee that North Korea doesn’t build AGI or someone else? And then the U.S. and China have an incentive to push the rest of the world to join them into an AGI moratorium.”
Global Cooperation on AI Regulation
Efforts to regulate AI are already underway, though they remain fragmented. Last year, the U.K. hosted an AI safety summit attended by both the U.S. and China to discuss potential guardrails for the technology. The European Union has enacted the AI Act, the first major law globally governing AI. Meanwhile, China has its own set of rules, and many other countries have yet to establish any regulations.
Some experts, like Schaefer, believe that international cooperation is essential. “When the dangers of competition are greater than the rewards, nations will ideally be motivated to come together and mutually self-regulate,” she said. Schaefer also noted that some Chinese policymakers have advocated for creating an international governance body under the United Nations, similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Key Takeaways
- China’s AI ambitions are driven by both geopolitical and domestic priorities.
- Experts warn that the race to develop AGI is fraught with risks, including loss of control over the technology.
- China’s approach to AI balances innovation with strict regulatory oversight to maintain political control.
- Global cooperation on AI safety and regulation remains fragmented but is increasingly seen as necessary.
As the U.S. and China continue their AI rivalry, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether through unilateral safety standards or international agreements, the world’s leading powers must find a way to navigate the challenges of AGI development responsibly.
Originally Written by: Arjun Kharpal
